Friday, May 23, 2008

Tough Week, nowhere to go but down from here

What a tough week. More lessons reiterated, the key one being always take profit when its there. I sold Apple and Gushan after watching those drop much of the week. Selling Apple was a mistake, the only hope is that sometime next week, the stock will resume its drop sufficiently to buy back in. With Gushan, the sale should've come at $17 or so instead of watching it go down to $15 before selling. This was one of those costly mistakes that one can only regret in hindsight. Selling Rio was probably a good move though considering how much it went down at the end of the week. There should also be an entry point there somewhere.

Although this week has been a bit of an eye opener as well. Bought into a few other beaten down stocks, Citigroup, WWE, Dendreon, and First Solar were all picked up. Although First Solar was bought on averaged down basis, added further to the position every time the stock went down. Given the continued rise on energy prices, FSLR is a continued good bet. Citigroup has also been beaten down over the last couple of weeks, started a small position there that may be added to as time goes on, generally the financials look like they've nearly bottomed, so, now might be a time to cautiously start picking some up. WWE is going to be another one that will have more of a position added onto it going forward, there is a nice little dividend that should happen in mid June, which has a prospect of boosting its prices in the next couple of weeks. Finally, Dendreon is the speculative play, having come down quite a bit lately, it was time to move back in a little and see if there is a quick pop and some fast money that can be made, but realistically, with Dendreon until Provenge (their cancer drug) gets approved, they will be stuck in the $5 range.

The week though has managed to help me solidify my thinking on strategy a bit more. The first is that my portfolio has to be split into three parts, core holdings where good long term companies like Apple will be held, secondary holdings that will trade in and out of speculative stocks like a Dendreon, and then just a small cash position to look for new possibilities. The problem though is that it'll take some time to get to this stage. Another interesting lesson is averaging, this is something already known, but had to be reinforced. Gushan was a good example of averaging while the stock is going up, and managed to get decent gains even if timing wasn't so great. Now, FSLR is going to be another test case, the stock dropped heavily this week, strange given the surge in oil. Having bought it on the way down, this is definitely still a stock that has legs, so I think it'll have some room to bounce back up, only time will tell if I'm right on this.

Overall, May has been an unkind month, but it isn't over yet. Hopefully, the foundation is being laid for some decent gains going forward.

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