All in all, it wasn't a bad market this week. Added a couple of new positions this week, removed one position, and noticed something interesting. First Solar (FSLR) position was closed on Wednesday, and then added Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) and Woodward Governor (WGOV) on Thursday. Both the later have been in the news lately, ENER having just announced a great quarter, and WGOV was mentioned as a great wind power play. But the theme is pretty obvious, alternative energy is all the rage, and Gushan (GU) bought last week apparently had a decent enough quarter that it continues to move up. All this thanks to the oil run up and Goldman's $200 per barrel oil prediction, it wouldn't be surprising if oil hit $130 a barrel next week.
This would call for a new trading strategy though for a good part of the portfolio. The theme is all going to be based on the fact that higher oil prices are inevitable. Therefore, the alternatives are all going to be in hypergrowth mode. The question is which are the right ones to pick to maximize returns. Part of the reason FSLR was sold was due to the recent runup. The runup is based on the premise that it's the only game (for thin film solar) in town, which is untrue. But FSLR is the largest name in play right now.
For the future, FSLR will likely track oil much more closely than before, and has a higher chance of pull back given the recent run up. So, FSLR would be a buy on a dip. Probably below $270 or so, but the major opportunity for growth will likely be found elsewhere.
This would call for a new trading strategy though for a good part of the portfolio. The theme is all going to be based on the fact that higher oil prices are inevitable. Therefore, the alternatives are all going to be in hypergrowth mode. The question is which are the right ones to pick to maximize returns. Part of the reason FSLR was sold was due to the recent runup. The runup is based on the premise that it's the only game (for thin film solar) in town, which is untrue. But FSLR is the largest name in play right now.
For the future, FSLR will likely track oil much more closely than before, and has a higher chance of pull back given the recent run up. So, FSLR would be a buy on a dip. Probably below $270 or so, but the major opportunity for growth will likely be found elsewhere.
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