Basically today was a bad day for the portfolio, but a good start for what I think is going to be a long down trend for the market as stocks go down. I look at the coming earning season, and I think for the most part it's going to be a wreck with people either having negative earning surprises (which will dominate) or poor earning guidance. The only thing that would help stock is if all the bad news are priced in. Somehow I don't think we're quite at that point yet.
Things will still hold up, if the bad news aren't as bad as expected. Case in point, Boeing was strong today, up $3.58 because it's bad news about 787 wasn't quite as bad as it sounds. Although I think Boeing is kidding themselves, the stock will stabilize, but I'm betting there is still more negative surprises to come, too much open items for Boeing, and a weakening economy means that airlines are not likely to buy as many airplanes.
The one point I'm kicking myself on is STP, I should've bought it back on the day I sold, solar stocks have crept back up thanks to higher oil prices. Again, it's very tough to tell, oil has gone
really far up, everyone says a pull back is inevitable. The only question is when, if oil goes down, so down the rest of the energy stocks, and so I'll play it safe for now and wait for the drop again. Tomorrow will likely be modest move up or down. But starting next week, I think we go into triple digit territory again. And I'm betting it won't be good news.
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